Russia-China Drills Worry Japan
• Dr. Vijay Sakhuja
Russia has upped the ante against the US by conducting large scale military drills codenamed Exercise “Ocean-24”. It is perhaps the largest in three decades involving over 400 naval vessels, more than 120 aircraft, and over 90,000 troops. The footprint of the drills can be seen in both hemispheres at different geographies - Pacific and Arctic Oceans, and the Mediterranean, Caspian, and Baltic Seas.
A strongly worded statement by President Putin accused the US and its allies of “openly declaring their plans to deploy medium- and shorter-range missiles in the so-called forward zones.” Furthermore, he claimed, “Under the pretext of countering the allegedly existing Russian threat and containing the People's Republic of China, the United States and its satellites are increasing their military presence near Russia's western borders, in the Arctic, and in the Asia-Pacific region.”
China has joined Russia in these military drills, designated Northern/Interaction-2024, to “deepen strategic cooperation between the two sides and strengthen their ability to respond to security threats.” The PLA Navy has deployed four vessels and 15 aircraft for the joint exercises, which are programmed to operate with the Russian forces in waters and airspace of the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in the Pacific Ocean. The Japanese Self Defence Forces undertook “monitoring and intelligence gathering” of the movement of these forces.
Unlike Russia, the Chinese Ministry of Defence has downplayed these exercises as an “annual feature” with “mutual consensus.” Earlier, the two sides carried out aerial patrols over the Chukchi and Bering Seas and the northern Pacific Ocean, involving Russian Air Force Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers and the Chinese Air Force's Xian H-6 strategic bombers. According to media reports, China spent $15 billion on military exercises in the Western Pacific in 2023.
It is to be noted that Russia and China have not signed any military alliance but have declared a "no limits" partnership, announced in 2022 by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. In May 2024, they agreed to deepen their “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” for a new era.
These exercises should also be seen as a joint push against NATO, particularly the IP4 or “Indo-Pacific 4,” which includes Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. These countries joined the Alliance in July 2024 and cooperate with NATO under the 2021 Individually Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP), which is an “overarching framework for NATO’s cooperation with individual partner countries.” Their warships regularly visit IP4 countries, and there is strong evidence of NATO and IP4 building mutually reinforced deterrence mechanisms through naval and air deployments and joint exercises in the western Pacific.
Japan is visibly concerned about the growing strategic cooperation between Russia and China. Its annual defense white paper, released in July 2024, notes that “repeated joint activities” in waters near Japan are “clearly intended for the demonstration of force against Japan and are a grave concern from the perspective of the national security of Japan.”
Likewise, China and Russia are also concerned about the deployment of US missiles in Japan. According to a Japan Times report, the US is keen to deploy the Multi-Domain Task Force, which includes the mid-range Capability Typhon missile system. US Secretary of the Army Christine Warmuth said the US would be “very interested in seeing a multi-domain task force operating from Japan. We have made it clear to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces that we are interested in this. The deployment will proceed at the pace of the Japanese government.” This powerful system is capable of firing Tomahawk cruise missiles (1,600 kilometers) and SM-6 missiles. The system was deployed for the first time in the Indo-Pacific region in the northern Philippines during joint military exercises earlier this year.
China has opposed the proposed missile deployment, stating that a powerful weapon such as the Typhon on its “doorstep” would “increase the risk of misjudgment and miscalculation.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also warned that both Russia and China will “react to the emergence of additional and very significant missile threats, and their reaction will be far from being political, which has also been repeatedly confirmed by the two countries.”
The ongoing tensions between Russia-China vis-a-vis the US and its allies and partners create a perfect recipe for an unstable western Pacific. The region already faces issues between China and South China Sea claimants, particularly the Philippines, which is putting up a brave front, ostensibly with US encouragement, against Chinese coercion.
It also merits mention that Russia and China are yet to develop the high-end interoperability that the US and its allies and partners enjoy. However, frequent joint exercises by the Russian and Chinese militaries are an indicator of growing operational convergence between the two forces.
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.
