Geopolitics of Space: ASAT and Nuclear Test
• Dr. Devender Kumar
The geopolitical competition between states has now reached space. Recently Russia vetoed the joint UNSC resolution by US and Japan to maintain the ban on testing of WMD in space as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty 1967. The New York Times report notes that the Biden administration notified Congress and European partners about the ‘Russian advances in space’ and believed that Russia is designing a ‘space-based nuclear weapon to threaten USA’s extensive satellite network.’ The US is anxious about Russia's possible usage of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon.
There are nearly 10,000 active satellites in the outer space and 77 space agencies are active worldwide. It is estimated that the number of satellites in orbit will grow in the future. USA, Russia, Europe, Canada, China, Japan and India have active programs and established space agencies and some have active space launch programs. The US acts as the sole power in the sector and has 3415 satellites in orbit followed by Russia with 170, China with 535, the UK 486, and India 59.
While the increase in number of satellites is good for humankind these platform attracts strategic competition for advantage in space. A majority of these launch countries are opting for Anti-Satellite (ASAT) technology which has increased the possibility of weaponization of space.
ASAT capability is any technology that destroys or harms a satellite in orbit thereby limit usage in space. The destruction can be done in two ways: (a) kinetic and (b) non-kinetic. In kinetic there is physical destruction of a satellite by an explosion near the satellite; non-kinetic method results in damaging the C3 (Command & Control Center) of satellites and make them collide with other satellites. However, lasers and cyber-attacks are also used to blind the satellite.
Countries use ASAT to destroy the space capability of other states for strategic advantage in military, economic, technical, and civilian areas. Military uses satellites for navigation, communication, intelligence, meteorology, surveillance and reconnaissance, and determine physical position. Big companies use satellites for banking transactions, data, and communication etc. The satellites also are used for environmental purposes to monitor Earth- to detect activities and assess the impact of global warming. In agriculture, satellites help to monitor crops and find potential threats to harvest. It helps the governments to take actions on natural disasters, coastal erosion, and wildfires. The civilian population has benefited most from satellite technology and depends on it for making calls, navigation, videoconferencing, and television services.
There are at least four countries that possess ASAT capabilities i.e. USA, Russia, China, and India. The US was the frontrunner in this technology and conducted its first test in 1959. In 1962 it also tested nuclear weapons in space under Operation ‘Starfish Prime’ which destroyed 8 out of the 24 satellites in orbit. This test created electromagnetic pulses and led to a street light blackout in Hawaii. In 1963 Soviets conducted ASAT test and during the Cuban Missile Crisis, it was agreed with the USA, ‘not to use nuclear weapons above ground.’
The rivalry for ASAT was started by China in 2007 when it destroyed its own Fengyun -1C satellite and achieved anti-satellite capability. China’s action has risked the potential arming of the space sector and the possibility of nuclear weapons tests at higher altitudes.
Russia, the USA, and China are parties to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. They have violated several clauses of the Outer Space Treaty; such as Article 3 which states that exploration of space has to be by international law; Article 4 of the treaty on the other hand banned the testing of weapons of WMD; Article 6 of the treaty made international responsibility for the activities of countries for any damage caused by space programs; Article 9 prohibits any harmful interference in space from tests.
A recent report has articulated that Russia may use nuclear weapons in space to destroy American satellites. President Putin has denied such allegations and stated that ‘Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space’ and Russia wants to build capabilities in space ‘similar to the US’.
While the weaponization attracts its own dangers, the problem of debris in space is a new realization. The recent Russian destruction of Cosmos 1408, a Soviet Era satellite created debris and posed a danger to the International Space Station (ISS). It had to start its thruster for five minutes to avoid debris.
Keeping space clean from debris is a major challenge for the international community as the number of satellites, missiles, and ASAT tests are increasing in orbit. Most of the tests are conducted at a higher altitude by these countries which creates debris that never falls back to Earth and makes debris float in space. It can potentially harm other satellites and the International Space Station.
India on the other hand was careful during its ASAT test in 2019 and made sure that whatever debris was created during the test fell on Earth and conducted the test in lower orbit. The active satellites, ASAT tests, and missile launches are creating space junk and aggravating the debris problem.
Safe and secure space cannot be ensured without the traffic regulations for space. It is fair to argue that this will pose serious challenges to space exploration, space tourism, space mining, satellites, and the International Space Station etc. Russia and China must refrain from arming space and opt non-military operations to ensure peace.
Dr. Devender Kumar is an Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University.
