Chinese Coast Guard Prepares For Taiwan Blockade
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja
October is a politically sensitive month for People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Republic of China (RoC). Both celebrate national days on 1st October and 10th October (75th and 113th anniversary in 2024) respectively as also recall their separation. While the PRC seeks reunification, the RoC remains committed to ensuring independence. It is not surprising that the respective leaders make emotionally charged statements to rev-up public sentiments.
In his National Day speech, Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te called for “regional peace and stability” and urged PRC to “take up its international responsibilities and, along with Taiwan, contribute to the peace, security and prosperity of the region and the globe,” This is quite a benign and routine statement; but an earlier speech at the National Day gala in Taipei, it was stated that “PRC could not be the motherland of the people of the ROC”. Again in his speech on the National Day, he reiterated that RoC and PRC are not subordinate to other and the PRC “has no right to represent Taiwan.” These statements may have irked Beijing.
Meanwhile, in a rare public appearance, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed up in Dongshan County, eastern Fujian Province just across the Taiwan Strait a day after the culmination of the PLA “Joint Sword-2024B”. These drills had a distinct purpose to blockade key Taiwanese ports, and the sea and air combat manoeuvers by the PLA Navy and Air Force were meant to deter Taiwan declare independence.
The Joint Sword-2024B was a one-day military exercise under the PLA Eastern Theater Command that lasted just 13 hours. It was a “legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding national sovereignty and national unity” observed the spokesperson of the Eastern Theater Command Senior Captain Li Xi.
The exercises involved 153 Chinese aircraft of which 111 crossed the Median Line and entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Besides 17 warships, multiple drones and unspecified number of submarines (it is fair to assume), encircled Taiwan and undertook “sea-air combat-readiness patrol, blockade on key ports and areas, assault on maritime and ground targets, as well as joint seizure of comprehensive superiority,” The Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning was deployed at a strategic location to the east of Taiwan.
Apparently, this was the largest concentration of military forces close to the island as compared with September 2023 deployments when 103 Chinese military aircraft were detected operating around Taiwan in a 24-hour span. However, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry “none of China’s naval vessels successfully entered Taiwan’s contiguous zone, which is defined under international law as extending 24 nautical miles from a territory’s shoreline.”
The inclusion of Chinese Coast Guard in Joint Sword-2024B is notable. The 17 Coast Guard vessels in four task forces along with the 10,000 ton Haixun 09, also referred to as the “monster ship” and fitted with advanced technologies including BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, were deployed.
It is worth recalling that five months ago the Chinese Coast Guard vessels were deployed during Joint Sword-2024A; but their role was limited to “law enforcement exercises” only in the waters east of Taiwan. However, in the recent Joint Sword-2024B, the Chinese Coast Guard expanded “from a single area east of Taiwan to encircle the entire island”.
At another level, Chinese Coast Guard deployment against Taiwan should also be seen from the perspective of the recent announcement by the Quad Member states to deploy “on a rotational basis” their respective coast guards personnel-ships in the Indo Pacific. The first such deployment will begin in 2025 and Coast Guard personnel from Australia, India and Japan will embark onboard a US vessel under the “Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission” to “improve interoperability and advance under which “maritime safety” in the Indo-Pacific.
The QUAD also announced the Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) under which the partners in the Indo Pacific would “maximize tools provided through Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), a technology and training initiative that aims to increase maritime transparency and security in the Indo-Pacific region”. The inaugural MAITRI workshop is planned for 2025. The IPMDA and other Quad partner initiatives are significant to “monitor and secure their waters, enforce their laws, and deter unlawful behavior”. Furthermore, it is planned to launch a Quad maritime legal dialogue to support efforts to uphold the rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific.
Another significant initiative by the Quad member states is the Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network. Under a pilot project, collective logistics strengths are planned to be mobilized to provide civilian airlift support to natural disasters across the Indo-Pacific region.
The Quad members are exploring new initiatives to put pressure on China as the Chinese Coast Guard-PLA Navy pursue aggressive posturing through coercion and compellence. The Joint Sword-2024B is a prelude to naval blockade of Taiwan in which the Chinese Coast Guard can be expected to contribute (prevent civilian merchant shipping calling at Taiwanese ports, intercepting Taiwanese merchant vessels, harassing the fishing fleet) to the PLA Navy’s plans.
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.
