Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah Conflict and Implications on West Asian Geopolitics

Dr. Devender Kumar

The Israel and Hamas conflict is in its second year, but truce still eludes the conflicting parties. Iran joined the conflict and launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel to avenge the death of Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah on 3 October 2024. This was in response to Israeli assassination of the Chief of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh and the Commander of Hezbollah Fuad Shukr in July 2024. The Israeli retaliation to destroy Hamas and its associates following the 7 October 2023 attack killed nearly 40,000 people in Gaza. This conflict is becoming more murky as Shia proxies i.e. Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Badr, Kataib, Harakat al Nujaba, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq fractions in Iraq and Syria joined.

Israel has pursued an offensive strategy to counter the ‘terror outfit’ and attacked Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon for ‘total victory’. It wants to ‘destroy Hamas’s military and governing capability. The Israeli Secret Service (Mossad) has targeted operatives of Hezbollah by weaponizing communication devices such as walkie-talkies, pagers, televisions, motorcycles, car stereos, etc.

However, in May 2024, the US had proposed a three-stage peace deal to end this conflict. The plan tried for a ‘ceasefire’, ‘Israeli withdrawal’, ‘release of hostages’, and ‘end hostilities’. The UNSC on the other hand passed resolutions such as 2728 and 2735 for ‘immediate ceasefire’ and ‘without delay’ respectively under the US proposed plan. Ironically, the US and Russia simultaneously abstained from these resolutions while both resolutions attained the nod of the other 14 members with 0 against.

The Israeli PM rejected the US plan and shelved the possibility of a two-state solution between Israel and Hamas. Israeli conditions to end this conflict are (a) Hamas must be completely destroyed; and (b) the return of all hostages, to reach a peace agreement with Israel. When Israeli forces entered deep inside Gaza Hamas also rejected the US plan.

The tensions between Israel, Hamas, and Iranian proxies can escalate regional tensions into a big war between Israel on one side and the Islamic world on the other.

There are four possible geopolitical implications of this conflict on West Asia.

First, the offensive defence strategy of Israel can create regional fallout. Israel believes the best defence is a good offense therefore it is using a tit-for-tat approach and engaging in counterstrikes. According to a report, 101 hostages are still under Hamas’s captivity and many of them are citizens of the US. The main reason for such escalations is the belief that if someone rises to kill you, kill him first. Such an approach is likely to create more security situations for Israel than peace and will create chaos in the region.

Second, the recent assassinations, missile strikes, and retaliations may give rise to a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. The Iranian supreme leader outlined the October 7 attack as a “correct and legitimate move” and assured that “resistance will not back down” against Israel by its regional proxies. Khomeini also said that he is ready to “repeat the missile strikes if needed”. Iranian Ambassador to India stated that “Iran is not the Iran of 1981 when Iraq invaded”. Israel considers the missile strikes by Iran a “huge mistake” and the Israeli PM said that “Iran would pay for it”. Israel plans to ‘strike Iran hard’ and this may intensify the ongoing situation between the two.

Third, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is producing ‘9 kilograms of uranium’ and has enriched 60% of uranium which can be “enriched to weapons-grade”. This enrichment and violation of IAEA made the US withdraw from the nuclear deal the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. However, US sources confirmed recently that Iran can produce one bomb in 12 days. The former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett has alleged that the country must “destroy Iran's nuclear program” after the missile attack. The current escalation between Israel and Iran may bring the question of nuclear weapons and deterrence to security considerations in West Asia.

Fourth, the situation between Israel, Gaza, and Iran can be utilized by the Islamist forces i.e. Hezbollah (Party of God) and Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) in the region to create a sizable ideological base for themselves based on the happenings in the Fertile Crescent region. They believe in Jihad (holy war) to attain goals which can increase radicalization and increase extremism in the region and may give rise to terrorism in the future.

Despite the conflicting situation, to resolve the issue the region must find leaders like Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat who preferred peace at the expense of their lives for future generations and established long-term peace between Egypt and Israel by sidelining hostilities and opting for peace. Until this is achieved, escalation will continue and peace will remain expensive to the people of the region.

Dr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University.