Quad, China, and Security in the Indo-Pacific

Dr. Devender Kumar

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a grouping consisting of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, faces a dilemma after a suggestion made by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba for becoming an ‘Asian Version of NATO’. He stated that “the absence of a collective self-defence system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defence”. The Japanese Foreign Minister said “An Asian NATO is an idea for the future” and should be ‘considered in the mid-to-long-term’.

Since its beginning, Quad has faced the question of security in the Indo-Pacific. However, after 4 in-person meetings, 6 summits, and 8 foreign ministers meetings, the grouping has refrained from directly mentioning China in the “Quad Leaders Joint Statement” of 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. But it did make indirect references to its actions to ensure the commitment to a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’.

China has aggressively pursued its ambitions in East and South China Sea. Recently Philippines claimed that the Chinese ship intentionally collided with the Philippines Ship, following which it asked China to “cease all provocative and dangerous actions” in the region. Japan on the other hand witnessed attempts by China “to unilaterally change the status quo in the East Asia region”.

More recently China attacked Vietnam’s ships and fishermen in the South China Sea. The countries facing attack from China like the Philippines and Vietnam are now signing agreements with each other for cooperation in the maritime domain and security in the South China Sea. They want to be partners in confronting China, as it has claimed the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea.

The 2024 Quad Summit Wilmington Declaration also showed Quad's conviction’ on ‘security and stability in maritime domain’ and proposed to uphold ‘respect to maritime claim’ and ‘freedom of navigation” against the situations and concerns in the South and East China Sea. According to a report the countries even joined to “send a strong message to China” due to intimidation by Beijing in the region and decided to launch a ‘coast guard mission’ in 2025 for security in the region.

The grouping has also launched new initiatives such as the ‘Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI)’ for capacity building and regional security in the maritime domain. It also planned to launch a ‘Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission’ in 2025 to collaborate with Indian, Japanese, Australian, and US Coast Guards for maritime safety and interoperability.

There are four main reasons why Quad must openly address the China question to address the security of Indo-Pacific states.

First, countries in the Indo-Pacific are seeking security cooperation. Philippines has sought security engagement with the US and started having a military presence of the US in the country. It also signed security cooperation agreement with Vietnam and sought security and defense ties with Indonesia and regional powers i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India. These rising security cooperation agreement and Japan’s new ‘Asian NATO’ vision pose ideological dilemmas for countries such as India.

Second, Australia has joined AUKUS to ‘counterbalance China’ and limit its rising influence in the Indo-Pacific to ensure regional stability. The partners have enhanced engagement, increased presence, and opted for technological advancement to create deterrence and defense in the Indo-Pacific.

Third, nearly 90 percent of the Japanese consider China a security threat, and Beijing has been aggressive toward Japan. Both have dispute over the Senkaku Island in the East China Sea, and Japan has objected to armed Chinese vessel patrols near this island. Japan considers China a ‘serious concern’ and sought to enhance its military ties with the US and have ‘US-Japan alliance deterrence’ in the region.

Fourth, the security apprehensions in Indo-Pacific are causing a policy dilemma for countries such as India. It pursues the policy of multi-alignment in the heavily polarized global politics to rebalance among the conflicting scenarios i.e. Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Saudi rivalry, Israel-Iran rivalry, US-Russia rivalry, the China-US rivalry. It sought to defend its national interest and refuted the Japanese PM's views. However, the demand for the ‘Asian NATO’ outlook makes India rethink its policy.

The recent Chinese activities have forced ASEAN states to think on defense cooperation. Quad states have found many key areas for cooperation such as maritime, health, disaster, humanitarian assistance, cyber, space, connectivity, undersea cable network, digital future, technology, radio access network, climate, solar, and terrorism but still shies away from mentioning China in the official statement.

In essence, the countries in the Indo-Pacific are seeking ‘regional deterrence’ and ‘mutual defence’ against China. Quad now must openly address the security concerns of small states in the Indo-Pacific.

Dr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University.