India can Plug into the Persian Gulf-Black Sea Corridor

• Dr. Vijay Sakhuja

There is good news coming from Iran. The 37- kilometres long Qazvin-Rasht rail link, which is part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), was recently inaugurated in the presence of Mohammad Mokhber, the acting president of Iran. Also present at the event were high officials from Russia, Azerbaijan, Governor of Astrakhan Oblast, among others.

This short connection follows the commissioning last year of the rail link between Rasht and Bandar Anzali on the shores of the Caspian Sea. Another rail link between Rasht to Astara on the Iran-Azerbaijan border, when completed, will provide seamless railway connectivity between Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan. The latter was projected to have been completed by 2024 but is now expected to finish in 2028.

Meanwhile Iran has been contemplating another connectivity corridor linking five major water bodies i.e. Sea of Oman, Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea, Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Dubbed as the Persian Gulf–Black Sea International Transport and Transit Corridor, it connects Bander Abbas, Chabahar, through Armenia and/or Azerbaijan, to the Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi; thereafter the ships can move cargo across the Black Sea to Bulgarian ports of Burgas and Varna. The freight then moves on the road to Greece and other European destinations. In 2022, Iran was in talks with Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, and Greece to launch this multimodal corridor.

Although the proposal was first put forward by Iran in 2016, it has gained greater relevance now due to several factors such as the ongoing Russia Ukraine war, the limitations on the use of the Northern Corridor (Europe-Russia-China) on account of western sanctions on Russia, and the Houthi attacks on the shipping in the Gulf of Aden forcing ships to follow a longer route south of Africa. This threat is getting more complicated after recent reports that a possible deal between the Houthis in Yemen and al Shabaab in Somalia under which the former would provide weapons which could also be used against shipping in the region.

After its successes with the INSTC and the agreement with Iran to manage operations of the Shahid-Behesti terminal in the Chabahar Port, India is technologically primed to plug into the Persian Gulf–Black Sea International Transport and Transit Corridor. There are at least three important triggers for India to consider the Persian Gulf - Black Sea corridor. First it dovetails into the INSTC which is now all set to be put to greater use. Earlier this month at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian officials announced plans to transport coal bound for India through the INSTC. Interestingly, the INSTC is also being called the energy corridor.

Second, it helps India diversify its land connectivity options through near-neighbourhood countries. In this context the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) merits mention. At the recently concluded G7 meeting in Italy, it was agreed that the grouping would support PGII (Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment) initiatives such as the IMEC.

However, it may be recalled that IMEC had attracted criticism and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan objected to the initiative noting that “there is no corridor without Turkey,”; and that his country is an “important production and trade base. The most convenient line for traffic from east to west has to pass through Turkey,”. On its part, Turkey is keen to develop the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) or the Middle Corridor, extending from China to Europe across Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the Caucasus into Turkey.

Third, the combined capacity of these corridors can effectively enhance India's ability to trade with the Caucuses countries as well as five member Eurasian Economic Union (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) with whom India has begun formal talks for the FTA.

India has received support from Armenia, and Narek Mkrtchyan, the Armenia Minister of Labor and Social Affairs stated that his government is “committed to forming partnerships in major regional and global projects like North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Gulf Black Sea transport and transit corridor, and the Chabahar port development”.

Armenia's interests in the Persian Gulf - Black Sea corridor is also triggered by its belief that the country should diversify its foreign and economic policy, and the corridor could then link it with the Gulf and Indian markets. Vice versa, the Indian traders can access markets in not only Armenia but also in Georgia and beyond.

The Persian Gulf - Black Sea corridor is a win-win situation for India, Iran, Armenia and Georgia. While it offers India another trade corridor, Iran could potentially earn as high as US$ 5 billion in transit fees, and Armenia and Georgia would be able to access the Gulf region and Indian markets.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.